Poker Musings, Vol. 4 - BLUFFING

Poker players are often pegged as "lying degenerates". This post isn't intended to do anything to contradict the latter half of the stereotype. Or the former.

In my opinion, the objective of poker is to take other people's money by outthinking them. And enjoy yourself in the process. In a game 'til infinity, everybody will have the same run of cards. In hold 'em, everyone will get dealt pocket aces at the same frequency, and everyone will get dealt J4 at the same frequency.

The key is to win more and lose less than your opponents when you are in a pot.

And that requires deception.

But here's the key. Your opponent is expecting you to lie. And they're going to be lying right back to you. The key to winning is to lie more convincingly and be able to smell the BS more effectively.

There are bluffs. There are Bluffs. And there are BLUFFS.

A bluff is something you might do once every couple of rounds. It's like ducking out early for a beer with a co-worker and failing to mention it to the wife. It's a white lie. Keeps the guy happy, no one's much worse for wear. It's raising AQ preflop from early position, getting a call from the button and then firing a continuation bet on a K94 flop. Your opponent folds. It's technically a bluff, although you might have been talking business over the beer so it can be defended as a career enhancing move.

There are Bluffs. These require a little more craftiness. They're the "I'm taking one of my precious vacation days next Wednesday to go catch a ballgame with the guys and I don't want to tell the wife because she wants me to save all the vacation days for when the baby comes." You have to somewhat set the stage for this one. Make sure your buddies don't tell their significant others. Make sure to sock away the cash so you don't have to use the credit cards. Maybe you've shown a bluff or 2 in the past... "OK, gotta come clean on this one 'cause the guilt is going to eat at me. Spaced Ghost, ab and I went out for a beer after work. It won't happen again."

You raise preflop with 88. You get one caller who has half the number of chips you have. The flop comes KQJ with 2 clubs. You're first to act and move all-in.

The Bluff can blow up in your face on occasion, but you can generally survive with your marriage intact (although if caught it's going to be very tough to bluff or Bluff again for a long while.)

And then there are the BLUFFS. The scary, white knuckle, Vegas trip with your 3 buddies for a weekend of gambling and strip clubs that you not only didn't mention to the Ms. but she can never, ever find out about. I can't emphasize enough the amount of preparation that goes into setting up the BLUFF. You have to have alibis. On top of alibis. On top of misdirections. Mixed in with red herrings. Running a BLUFF requires weeks to set up and still a little luck to pull off. And if you're caught, it means the end of your life.

In poker, pulling off a BLUFF is excruciatingly difficult. It requires perfect timing and often a bad read from your wife opponent. Here is probably one of the more memorable mainstream BLUFFS.

I am primarily a low-limit sit-n-go donkey grinder. Some of the most profitable opponents are the ones who try to BLUFF without setting the proper groundwork. Here's one I found enjoyable, along with some observations on how I knew he wasn't in Omaha at a sales convention and instead was taking jello shooters from Porsha's naval in the Rhino Club.

> PokerStars Game #19030xxxxx: Tournament #973xxxxx

9-max Seat #7 is the button
> Seat 6: MAXBOOM (7370 in chips) (overwhelming chip leader, of course)
> Seat 7: Mr. Irrelavent (3290 in chips)
> Seat 8: I'mLosingHalfofEverything (2840 in chips)

> MAXBOOM: posts the ante 25
> Mr. Irrelavent: posts the ante 25
> I'mLosingHalfofEverything: posts the ante 25
> I'mLosingHalfofEverything: posts small blind 100
> MAXBOOM: posts big blind 200

Pot is 375
> *** HOLE CARDS ***
> Dealt to MAXBOOM [3c Ac]
> Mr. Irrelavent: folds
> I'mLosingHalfofEverything: calls 100 (try to build a range here. Not a terrible player. Short stack. I think the range of hands he could have is way too broad to list.

Business trip, eh. All right then. Never been on a business trip before, though.

But the key on this one is that you can eliminate some hands that he doesn't have because he didn't raise/shove.)

> MAXBOOM: checks (I might raise, start asking some questions about what the conference is about, where he's staying, but for now I'll just let him continue to tell me his story.)

Pot is 475.
> *** FLOP *** [6s 6c 5d]

> I'mLosingHalfofEverything: bets 2615 and is all-in

(moment of truth here. I have Ac3c. He has just raised 2615 into a 475 pot.

The Omaha Holiday Inn doesn't have a reservation in his name.

I don't know what his range is, but I am confident what it isn't because he didn't raise preflop. Namely no Ace, no pocket pair. Additionally, he is shoving here. A premium hand (AA-QQ) might play the hand this way preflop, but after the flop as a short stack would almost certainly try to draw me in by checking hoping I'd make a play. Getting to Level 3 thinking, what do you think he thinks I have. Probably drawing the same conclusion because I just checked preflop, No Ace, No Pocket pair.

The office just called asking if they knew a number to reach him at.

I also don't think he'd open shove if he got any piece of this flop. It's too tasty a spot to check-raise me because he should suspect that if he checks, the random player acting behind him will make a move at this pot in this position. So there you have it, he doesn't have an Ace, he doesn't have a pocket pair and he doesn't have a piece of this flop.

"Oh that son-'bitch done went off to Vegas with Boomer and Dickie, didn't he?"

> MAXBOOM: calls 2615
> *** TURN *** [6s 6c 5d] [3s]
> *** RIVER *** [6s 6c 5d 3s] [Qc]
> *** SHOW DOWN ***
> I'mLosingHalfofEverything: shows [Kc 4d] (a pair of Sixes)
> MAXBOOM: shows [3c Ac] (two pair, Sixes and Threes)
> MAXBOOM collected 5705 from pot

(boom)